PUNDITS in Athens were not all that surprised when Costas Karamanlis, the Greek prime minister, announced that he would call a snap election next month, halfway through his four-year term. The opposition Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) led by George Papandreou is ahead by six points in the polls, so Mr Karamanlis seems set for a spell in opposition. His announcement, on September 2nd, duly infuriated some in his centre-right New Democracy party. “What am I to tell my voters? That we’re just surrendering power?” spluttered one backbencher. But with a bare two-seat majority in parliament, the conservatives have been clinging to power in undignified fashion. After five-and-a-half years in office, Mr Karamanlis looks tired. A string of corruption scandals (one, over the sale of church property, involved his closest aide) have undermined his authority.
Recession looms, with the economy projected to shrink this year. Tourist receipts are forecast to fall by 15-20%. Germans have stayed at home; Britons have headed for cheaper Turkey or Croatia. The global downturn is cutting Greek shipping earnings. The budget deficit may hit 6-7% of GDP this year.
Unrest simmers close to the surface. Last December’s riots in Athens led to the emergence of new extreme-left groups. This week a car bomb damaged the Athens stock exchange. In Thessaloniki, another bomb went off outside the ministry for northern Greece. The recent forest fires have reinforced a sense of drift; local mayors were quick to blame the government for not reacting faster.
Yet, despite popular dissatisfaction with New Democracy, the polls suggest that Pasok may not win an outright majority in the 300-seat parliament. Mr Papandreou, a former foreign minister who reached out to Turkey, is mistrusted by his party’s old-fashioned nationalists. Younger voters may prefer the Greens (who won a seat in the European election in June) or Syriza, a left-wing splinter group run by Alexis Tsipras, a fast-talking, 30-something biker.
The government that takes over after the election, which will probably be on October 4th, may be short-lived. Parliament is due to vote for a new president next March, and Pasok is unlikely to command the three-fifths majority required. If no president is chosen, another general election would be necessary. Greece may be in for a period of both economic gloom and political instability.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14380305
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